One
of the biggest arguments that China, India and other developing
countries use when it comes to limiting their carbon emissions is that
the rich countries emitted greenhouse gasses unrestricted when they
were developing. Therefore, the current developing countries should be
allowed to do so as well. This is an argument fraught with so many
problems. I will attempt to discuss them each individually.
The
first and most obvious issue is that of scale. In the 1750s to the
1850s there were not near as many people on the planet as there are
now. For instance, in 1750 it is estimated that there were 791 million
people on the planet. In 1850 the number was 1.26 billion. In 1950 the
number was 2.5 billion and in 2008 it was estimated at 6.7 billion.
So
we are talking about a far smaller world population during the
industrial revolution. Am I the only one who has picked this up? For
the Chinese to argue what they are arguing is ridiculous. In 1750 the
European and North American populations combined were 0.16 billion
people. 1850 it was 0.30 billion. And in 2008 it was 1.07 billion.
What
this means is that China wants to be able to pollute in an unrestricted
manner for their 1.50 billion people based on the historical emissions
for, on average, 0.50 billion Europeans and North Americans. That is
ludicrous.
Next,
lets think about the Mao years. During a period of massive
industrialization in Europe and the United States, the Chinese people
decided to fall back to an agrarian, subsistence communist state. Did
anyone force them to do this while the rest of the world
industrialized? No.
They
chose this path of their own accord and as a result they now have to
play a game of catch up and they are doing it using old technology. Why
is that anyone else's fault but their own? Anyway why should we have to
pay for it in terms of exported pollution and rampant GHG emissions?
As
part of the massive industrialization of the European and North
American economies more efficient power production came as a side
benefit. Although not perfect, there were many advances made. The
Chinese however are still using soviet era technology for many of their
coal plants. In addition they are adding one almost every week. Why is
it the rest of the World’s responsibility in terms of increased GHG
emissions to allow the Chinese to pump out GHGs without regard to
technology and efficiency?
The
Chinese are also demanding that they be allowed “intensity” based
targets. Well we have all seen this one before. Alberta? The
Conservatives. China has about 500 million middle class city dwellers
that are already at the Western level of GHG emission per capita. They
have another 500 million waiting in the wings. Allowing intensity based
targets will only slow the GHG emission trajectory. It will not alter
the direction of it. In the next 20 to 30 years China’s coal usage is
expected to triple. They are already the world’s largest GHG emitter
and their pollution is winding up on North American shores.